The U.S. – China Deep Tech Arms Race
May 21, 2026
For years, the United States told itself a reassuring story: China could manufacture and copy, but it couldn't innovate. That story is no longer credible. From DeepSeek's compute-efficient AI model to BYD's dominance of the global EV market, China is producing both volume and quality across sectors that matter. The question is no longer whether China can compete — it's whether the United States is playing its own hand well.
In this episode of TechSurge, host Michael Marks speaks with Vivek Chilukury, Senior Fellow at CNAS, where he focuses on U.S.–China technology competition, AI policy, and digital geopolitics. Vivek's path from counter-terrorism work at the State Department to tech policy in the Senate gives him an unusually grounded perspective on how government actually functions — and where it keeps failing itself.
Vivek and Michael work through the full competitive landscape: the wake-up moments that shifted Washington's focus from manufacturing to technology dominance, why the dual-use nature of advanced technology has pulled the national security community into conversations once left to industry, and what Made in China 2025 actually achieved — and where it fell short.
The conversation goes deep on America's policy toolkit: what the CHIPS Act accomplished and why it wasn't enough, how export controls on advanced semiconductors are working and what they're missing, and why Washington is far too weighted toward restriction at the expense of the "run faster" side of the equation. Vivek is also candid about what DeepSeek really tells us — not just about Chinese innovation, but about the gap between building a model and deploying AI at scale.
They also explore the global dimension: China's "easy button" approach to technology exports, what the U.S. AI exports program is trying to do in response, the rise of "AI sovereignty" movements from Brussels to Delhi, and why the talent and immigration decisions of the past year amount to a serious self-inflicted wound.
The United States still holds the best hand in the world for this competition. The question Vivek keeps returning to is whether we're playing it well — and right now, his honest answer is no.
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Episode Links:
- Connect with Vivek: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vivekchilukuri/
- Learn more about CNAS: https://www.cnas.org
Timestamps:
[02:11] Wake-Up Calls: Chips & 5G
[04:17] Atoms vs Bits in AI
[07:27] China's Innovation Surge
[10:57] Systems Capital vs Planning
[14:14] Made in China 2025 Scorecard
[17:23] US Tools: Chips & Controls
[24:12] DeepSeek & Compute Scarcity
[26:47] Energy Constraints & Scaling
[29:01] AI Exports & the Easy Button
[32:43] Allies & AI Sovereignty
[36:13] Talent Flows & Immigration
[39:04] Beyond AI: The Biotech Frontier
[43:30] Founder Advice: Global South
[45:20] Wrap-Up & Key Takeaways
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